How will COVID-19 affect Spring Hiring in 2021?

But 2020 was not most years. And with shutdowns and restrictions, businesses are still uncertain if they’ll be able to operate normally and how many staff they can bring on - if any.  This year we might know a lot more about the virus, but we still don't know whether service industry businesses will be able to operate fully come summer.

Spring Hiring before COVID-19

There’s a common misconception that the holiday hiring season (September to November) is the busiest time for small businesses in the service industry. While the holidays are certainly a big earner, Snagajob’s proprietary data shows that small businesses hire significantly more staff in preparation for the summer tourist season. 

In 2019, small businesses in the service industry hired 34% more between March and May than between September and November.

And there’s the same increase in job applicants, especially amongst the most experienced hourly workers. During the 2019 spring hiring season, we saw a 41% increase in job searches by workers with 5+ years of experience compared to every other season. As far as recruitment, spring is the best time of the year, both to look for jobs and to hire quality staff. 

Spring Hiring in 2020

Springtime 2020 radically altered that trend. With the announcement of the foreign travel ban and most states issuing stay-at-home orders in March, the summer was thrown into uncertainty. Two key industries–tourism and hospitality–felt huge blows by the sudden restrictions, with some small businesses losing the entirety of their customer base almost overnight. 

Hiring for the summer season was the last thing on most small businesses’s minds. In fact, the data is completely flipped: there were 41% more hires in the 2020 holiday period than in the spring, possibly as a result of relaxation of restrictions after the summer. 

Spring Hiring this year

While we are still unsure of the impact the pandemic will have on summer employment this year, it will be policies and vaccine distribution that determine whether service industry businesses can operate and to what level. So, does that mean the spring hiring surge could come back?

The short answer is maybe. Management consultancy firm McKinsey says that the US could “transition towards normalcy” in April to May, as long as the vaccine rollout accelerates. Dr Anthony Fauci has predicted a similar timeline suggesting if 70%-80% of Americans are vaccinated in the next three months, the country could have herd immunity by the summer. If President Biden’s plan to vaccinate all adults by the end of May succeeds, there’s a chance businesses will be able to operate as normal by July and August.

Of course, that is still an if. No one can say with certainty that there won’t still be restrictions in place in the summer. Without that certainty, the biggest deciding factor that will determine spring hiring is having the right resources at the right time. In a climate so unknown, flexibility and the ability to get the right people fast will be the biggest key to success.