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US economy expected to recoup 100% of job losses during Pandemic by end of August 

Highlights

Overall, hourly jobs are up 179% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 1% month-over-month decline, and a 34% year-over-year gain. Google searches for hourly jobs are up 14% from this time last year.

Jobs recovery is happening faster than predicted.

In a continuing sign that the American economy is recovering from the painful fallout of COVID-19, a recent Fitch Ratings report suggests that the jobs market will return to pre-pandemic levels by late summer.

Currently, the US is just 1.6 million jobs short of the pre-pandemic February 2020 level. With job growth averaging over 400,000 new jobs per month, the economy is on pace to reach pre-pandemic levels by the end of August.

This is a remarkably fast 2.5-year turnaround, and one applauded by businesses and consumers alike. For a historical perspective, recovery from the 2007-2008 Great Recession took more than 6.5 years.

Unlike a typical recession, there are more open jobs than people looking for work.

There are now  11 million open jobs and 6 million available workers. That amounts to 1.8 open jobs per worker, which is the opposite of what you might expect. Needless to say, we’re in uncharted waters here.

What does this mean for businesses currently hiring?

Businesses are advised to be open-minded about hiring—expanding traditional applicant paradigms to include broader labor pools—teens, first-time job seekers, candidates without industry experience, and people with disabilities or a minor non-violent criminal history could also make sense.

The “unhealthy” (in the words of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell) tight job market may also impact interest rates, as the government hopes to slow inflation by increasing the cost of borrowing money. The Fed’s goal is to avoid higher prices, which would in turn cause workers to demand higher wages, and eventually keep spiraling.


Worker shortages expected to impact summer travelers.

This week, as millions of Americans finalize their summer travel plans, this Today show segment highlighted how many summer vacation destinations stateside are still short-staffed. Travelers should manage their expectations accordingly.

To help businesses meet staffing needs this summer, the Committee for Economic Development has released The US Labor Shortage: A Plan to Tackle the Challenge. The report outlines demographic trends and how businesses and the government together can help solve the hiring shortage.


While hiring remains a challenge, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Strong job growth and government policy aimed at encouraging participation will hopefully get workers back in the market.

Jobs

All industry data is from 3/2/20-5/03/2022

Here are the latest overall job numbers:

Overall jobs are up 179% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 1% month-over-month decline, and a 34% year-over-year gain. Google searches for hourly jobs are up 14% from this time last year.



Here are the latest job numbers by industry:

Food & Restaurant jobs are up 41% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 1% month-over-month decline, and a 0% year-over-year growth.


Hotel & Hospitality jobs are up 88% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 26% month-over-month gain, and a 7% year-over-year growth.


Healthcare jobs are up 133% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing an 11% month-over-month gain, and a 26% year-over-year growth.


Retail jobs are up 42% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 7% month-over-month decline, and a 9% year-over-year gain.


Warehouse & Production jobs are up 650% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 2% month-over-month decline, and a 59% year-over-year gain.


Workers

Google searches for hourly jobs are up 14% year-over-year.



The bottom line


We’ll continue to be your best resource for hourly job market insights as we collectively navigate towards our new normal and beyond.


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Mathieu Stevenson |
Mathieu Stevenson is the CEO of Snagajob. His first hourly job was as a lifeguard.