Election Edition - Weekly Hourly Hiring Report 11/3/2020

Special Election Edition of the Weekly Hourly Hiring Report

Snagajob is here to help you navigate the hourly hiring landscape during this pandemic. Our proprietary data gives us a unique perspective on hourly job trends and we can see how both workers and employers are responding in real-time. One of the most valuable things we can offer you is a view into these insights and hiring trends. We’re here to give you helpful context as you make business decisions. 

Weekly Hourly Hiring Report 11/3/20

It’s election day!

On this highly-anticipated election day, we have a special Election Edition of the Weekly Hourly Hiring Report for you. 

*NOTE: If you’re at your limit for all things political, you can scroll down to the Jobs section to find the weekly data.

Just like COVID-19 will be a significant factor in the hourly job market outlook in 2021, the election will also influence what we can expect. 

We see three possible scenarios that could play out, based on who wins the presidency, and which party wins control of the House and the Senate. 

1. Divided President and Congress 

The hourly job market looks strong in this scenario, similar to 2017. We think there will be a  10% increase year over year in job seekers, offset by historically-high hiring (~5.4M monthly). Job seeker growth is likely to accelerate to 20% year over year in the second half of 2021 as enhanced unemployment benefits expire.

This scenario will likely continue Pandemic Unemployment Assistance of $400 a week through the first quarter of 2021 and Pandemic Unemployment Emergency Compensation through the end of next year.

2. Democratic President and Congress

The hourly job market will remain tight in this scenario, similar to the second half of 2020. The number of job seeker levels is still reduced due to unemployment benefits—which will put pressure on hourly wages as hiring levels rise with the economic recovery.

Also, led by the Department of Labor, we think there will be an expanded reclassification of 1099 workers as W2 workers, similar to what happened in California.

This scenario will likely continue Pandemic Unemployment Assistance of $600 a week, phasing down to $200 a week by the end of 2021 and Pandemic Unemployment Emergency Compensation through the end of next year.

3. Republican President and Congress

The hourly job market will have a dynamic similar to 2011-2012, where there will be a greater demand for jobs and less supply. While we’ll see elevated hiring levels as the economy rebounds, we would expect to see job seeker growth of 20%-30% in the second quarter. It’s more aligned with what we might expect in a recession with elevated unemployment.

This scenario will likely continue Pandemic Unemployment Assistance of $200 a week through the first quarter of 2021 and Pandemic Unemployment Emergency Compensation through the second quarter of next year.

Jobs

All industry data is from 3/2/20-11/3/20

Overall jobs are down 3% week over week, down 17% month over month and up 15% since early March.

Here are the latest job numbers by industry:

Quick service restaurant (QSR) jobs are flat week over week, up 1% month over month and down 28% since early March.

Sit-down restaurant jobs are up 2% week over week, down 3% month over month and down 45% since early March.

Warehouse and logistics jobs are down 318% week over week, down 92% month over month and up 326% since early March.

Retail jobs are down 2% week over week, up 5% month over month and down 7% since early March.

Grocery jobs are up 2% week over week, up 10% month over month and up 59% since early March.

Hospitality jobs are up 58% week over week, up 55% month over month and up 11% since early March.

On demand jobs are up 4% week over week, down 6% month over month and up 69% since early March.

Convenience store jobs are up 9% week over week, up 9% month over month and down 6% since early March.

Healthcare jobs are down 1% week over week, down 11% month over month and up 19% since early March.

Workers

Google searches for part-time jobs are down 7% week over week, down 33% month over month and down 45% since early March.

The bottom line

As always, we’re staying tuned to economists, industry leaders and credible data sources—including our own. Plus, we continue to talk to hourly workers and employers to see how they’re feeling about the situation.