Job growth, unemployment, and their impact on tomorrow’s hiring

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Overall, hourly jobs are up 128% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing an 18% month-over-month drop, and a 9% year-over-year decline. 

With the Labor Department’s July jobs report coming out this Friday, economists are guesstimating which direction the numbers will point. If recent history is any indicator, the predictions will fall short of the actual job growth. We’ll keep you posted on results and implications for your hourly hiring.

Either way, the number of jobs gained in July will certainly have an impact on unemployment, which will ultimately impact inflation. In fact, an article on a recent Wall Street Journal survey of economists suggests that inflation won’t hover around its current 9% range for much longer. Instead, it should fall to around 5% towards the end of the year. However, to reach a more sustainable 2% inflation, the Feds are going to have to make tough decisions that will ultimately raise unemployment rates. 

By how much? Some pundits suggest unemployment will need to raise from its most recent 3.6% figure to 4.3% or higher.

For hiring this is positive news, as fewer jobs and more available workers will begin to ease the challenges businesses now face in filling open positions. This is great news as holiday hiring begins to ramp up.

In the meantime, businesses are doing all they can to attract workers. A case in point is the maker of doors and windows, Pella. Headquartered in a small Iowa city, the company is investing over $30 million to make its workplace and community more attractive to job seekers. This includes adding housing, childcare facilities, restaurants, on-campus entertainment centers, and other perks.

“We just didn’t have the amenities that people we were trying to recruit would expect,” said Pella CEO Tim Yaggi.

While you may not have the resources to rebuild your community and facilities, the point is well taken. As we found in our recent Summer 2022 Hourly Hiring Report, attracting and retaining workers takes a rethinking of what you offer workers. Begin by reevaluating and retooling your company culture to better align with the values of younger workers, such as teens and Gen Z workers (who place a higher value on workplace principles). Stress what you stand for and how you’re achieving goals beyond monetary gain.

Jobs

All industry data is from 3/2/20-8/2/22

Here are the latest overall job numbers:

Overall jobs are up 128% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing an 18% month-over-month drop, and a 9% year-over-year decline. 

Here are the latest job numbers by industry:

Food & Restaurant jobs saw no change compared to pre-pandemic norms, reporting a 25% month-over-month drop, and a 31% year-over-year decline.

Hotel & Hospitality jobs are down 6% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 40% month-over-month drop, and a 61% year-over-year decline.

Healthcare jobs are up 159% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 12% month-over-month drop, and an 18% year-over-year decline.

Retail jobs are up 39% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 4% month-over-month drop, and a 6% year-over-year decline.

Warehouse & Logistics jobs are up 998% compared to pre-pandemic norms, seeing a 23% month-over-month drop, and a 55% year-over-year gain.

The bottom line

We’ll continue to be your best resource for hourly job market insights as we collectively navigate towards our new normal and beyond.

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Mathieu Stevenson |
Mathieu Stevenson is the CEO of Snagajob. His first hourly job was as a lifeguard.